NOAA’s missed East Coast storm and the American debt crisis

European forecast models are more advanced in computer and weather satellite technology in relation to the United States

America‘s debt crisis is not a short term issue, the impact is expanding to bring attention to the general public of the current fiscal state of our country. The first in a series of articles to cover how deficit spending and debt servicing is straining government finances to impact major facets of the economy nationally and locally. The first article will discuss the crisis at NOAA in the technological gap of computer and weather satellite technology behind Europe and Japan. How government finances are being held back from upgrading the systems to accurately predict long term pending weather events such as Hurricane Sandy.

A recent example of the American forecasting gap, the East Coast saw a storm that brought snows to the mid-south, and spawned a Nor’easter with such intensity as the satellite pictures revealed a storm offshore of Boston that resembled a summer cyclone in size symmetric and formation of an eyewall. The knock out punch of the storm was missed by Boston and Cape Cod by 50 miles, but NOAA was unable to fully realize the storm’s fury 7 days out because the US uses Global Forecast Model (GFS) an inferior model in comparison to models Europe or Japan. The European model of forecasting that did predict a dynamic storm off the Northeast coast before the American model, and this storm would have been a disaster if a westward shift of 50 miles in the storm’s track. This near miss follows Hurricane Sandy where the European Model did a much better job of managing the forecast for Hurricane Sandy.

The following are comparisons of the weekend storm forecast comparison to European and American forecast models up to 120 hours before storm:

Actual coastal storm Feb 16-17

European Model 120 hours before storm:

European Model predicted a coastal storm 120 hours out

American forecast model 108 hours before storm

The inability to upgrade has been NOAA not requesting the financing needed, but government finances are strained. This new system can wait according to the leadership in DC. American debt must be serviced in interest payments annually and the budget deficits must be funded by selling bonds. This requires significant resources and money taken away from vital projects and systems to keep the country protected. After Hurricane Sandy, this should be a wake up to the dangers faced by the expanding debt crisis. Many in the scientific community are aware of the issue and show great concern. and they are requesting for people to contact Congress over the danger of NOAA being marginalized in the technology needed to save lives in accurate forecasting. 
 

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• NOAA Head: Weather Forecasts at Risk Over Budget Cuts (climatecentral.org)
• In America, weather forecasters get a Yugo while climate modelers get a Ferrari (chron.com)
• Display Weather Alerts From NOAA Using Atom (WPF Example) (chrisbitting.com)
• NOAA Head: Budget Cuts Threaten Weather Forecasts (huffingtonpost.com)
• Banks extending protections for customers affected by Hurricane Sandy (creditrepair.com)